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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 17

Seattle Seahawks 21 – Los Angeles Rams 24

What Actually Happened

(4:50) 4-S.Hauschka 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.85 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 27, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model