Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 83

Los Angeles Rams 24 – Seattle Seahawks 13

(1:22) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to SEA 31, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 37 for 6 yards (31-M.Alexander; 97-E.Sims).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.87 EP
49% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 83, worth -4.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model