4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 31

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(10:04) 40-D.Coleman up the middle to LA 29 for 2 yards (99-A.Donald).

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.81 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 31, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 41, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model