Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 82

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(4:49) 9-J.Ryan punts 57 yards to LA 25, Center-49-C.Gresham. 11-T.Austin for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SEA-58-K.Pierre-Louis, Ineligible Downfield Kick, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.19 EP
67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 82, worth -4.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model