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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 9

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(9:46) 4-S.Hauschka 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +3.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.31 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 9, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.45 EP