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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 49

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(3:06) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-49-C.Gresham, Touchback. PENALTY on SEA-40-D.Coleman, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at LA 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.63 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -1.07 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model