4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 15

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(7:34) 4-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.93 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 15, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model