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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 32

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(2:03) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.17 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 32, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 42, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model