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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 1

New York Giants 23 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(1:37) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +3.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 1, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.61 EP