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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 12

New York Giants 13 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(9:52) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +2.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.19 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 12, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP