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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 62

Arizona Cardinals 7 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 2-D.Butler punts 30 yards to NO 32, Center-82-M.Leach, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.24 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 62, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model