4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 14 at the 65

New Orleans Saints 19 – Arizona Cardinals 31

What Actually Happened

(:31) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete deep right to 16-B.Coleman. Penalty on NO-73-J.Evans, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +0.83 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 65, worth -1.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 23, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.58 EP