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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 38

Arizona Cardinals 24 – New Orleans Saints 19

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 2-D.Butler punts 35 yards to NO 3, Center-82-M.Leach, downed by ARI-28-J.Bethel.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.03 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 38, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 47, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.01 EP