Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 57

New Orleans Saints 13 – Arizona Cardinals 14

(7:13) 6-T.Morstead punts 27 yards to ARI 30, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.63 EP
67% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 57, worth -3.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model