Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 75

Arizona Cardinals 14 – New Orleans Saints 13

(10:33) 2-D.Butler punts 47 yards to NO 28, Center-82-M.Leach. 23-M.Murphy to NO 30 for 2 yards (59-A.Fua).

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.66 EP
54% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 75, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model