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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 4

New Orleans Saints 10 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(12:05) 2-Z.Hocker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown.

The Three Options

GO +3.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.19 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 4, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP