Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 76

New Orleans Saints 10 – Arizona Cardinals 14

(1:19) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to ARI 26, Center-47-J.Drescher. 14-J.Nelson to ARI 37 for 11 yards (35-A.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.07 EP
60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model