4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 57

Arizona Cardinals 14 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 2-D.Butler punts 46 yards to NO 11, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 23-M.Murphy.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.41 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 57, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 17, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP