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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 52

New Orleans Saints 3 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 6-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to ARI 12, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 14-J.Nelson.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.67 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 52, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.52 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model