Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 19 at the 97

Minnesota Vikings 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 18-J.Locke punts 39 yards to MIN 42, Center-47-K.McDermott. 38-J.Hayne MUFFS catch, touched at MIN 42, RECOVERED by MIN-57-A.Cole at MIN 43. 57-A.Cole to MIN 43 for no gain (38-J.Hayne). 1-yd of loose ball yardage.

The Three Options

GO -4.35 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.58 EP
72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 97, worth -6.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model