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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 26

Minnesota Vikings 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:02) 3-B.Walsh 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.71 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model