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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 38

Minnesota Vikings 3 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(3:04) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater sacked at MIN 48 for -14 yards (59-A.Lynch).

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.43 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model