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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 7

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(6:13) 9-P.Dawson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +3.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.34 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 7, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP