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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 19

Minnesota Vikings 0 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(14:48) 3-B.Walsh 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.03 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model