4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 11

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(4:37) 9-P.Dawson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.61 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model