Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 59

Minnesota Vikings 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:01) 18-J.Locke punts 44 yards to SF 15, Center-47-K.McDermott. 10-B.Ellington for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. Penalty on SF-50-N.Bellore, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on SF-27-K.Reaser, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at SF 14.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.38 EP
59% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model