Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 18 at the 54

Minnesota Vikings 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(10:31) 18-J.Locke punts 31 yards to SF 23, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.52 EP
76% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 54, worth -3.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model