Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 75

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

(14:56) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to MIN 23, Center-86-K.Nelson. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 32 for 9 yards (49-B.Miller).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.29 EP
70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 75, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model