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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 47

Houston Texans 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 9-S.Lechler punts 30 yards to KC 17, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-46-J.Weeks.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.84 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 47, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.65 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 13, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model