4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 29

Houston Texans 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(1:28) 4-R.Bullock 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +2.62 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 29, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 39, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model