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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 56

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(2:55) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to HOU 15, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-K.Mumphery pushed ob at HOU 23 for 8 yards (57-D.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +0.60 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 56, worth -2.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 17, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP