Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 13 at the 71

Houston Texans 9 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 9-S.Lechler punts 57 yards to KC 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-D.Thomas MUFFS catch, and recovers at KC 14. 13-D.Thomas to KC 29 for 15 yards (21-D.Morris).

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.19 EP
70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 71, worth -4.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model