Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 64

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Houston Texans 9

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 2-D.Colquitt punts 56 yards to HOU 8, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 11 for 3 yards (35-C.West). (The Punt Hang Time was 4.40 secs.)

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.21 EP
65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model