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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 11

Houston Texans 9 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(6:09) 28-A.Blue right tackle to KC 11 for no gain (39-H.Abdullah; 96-J.Howard).

The Three Options

GO +3.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.38 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +2.28 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model