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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 37

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Houston Texans 9

What Actually Happened

(8:25) 2-D.Colquitt punts 37 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.96 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 37, worth -2.02 EP
KICK +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP