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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 43

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:23) 2-D.Colquitt punts 36 yards to HOU 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-30-J.Fleming.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.58 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 43, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -0.83 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.14 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model