Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 79

Houston Texans 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

(4:10) 9-S.Lechler punts 42 yards to KC 37, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-D.Thomas ran ob at HOU 47 for 16 yards. (The Punt Hang Time was 3.25 secs.)

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.29 EP
63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 79, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model