Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 77

Houston Texans 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

(9:07) 9-S.Lechler punts 48 yards to KC 29, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-D.Thomas to KC 48 for 19 yards (12-K.Mumphery). (The Punt Hang Time was 4.60 secs.)

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 77, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model