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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 9

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(10:29) 5-C.Santos 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.08 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 9, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model