4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 16 at the 86

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(:05) 4-S.Koch punts 59 yards to DEN 27, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-E.Sanders ran ob at DEN 27 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -3.31 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.23 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 86, worth -5.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 44, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model