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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 16 at the 38

Denver Broncos 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(5:21) 8-B.McManus 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.67 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 38, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.03 EP
What Happened
  • 49% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 47, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model