Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 61

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Denver Broncos 19

(1:49) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 80-C.Gillmore to DEN 47 for 14 yards (30-D.Bruton).

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP

What Happened

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.73 EP
65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 61, worth -2.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model