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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 15

Denver Broncos 16 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.67 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 15, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model