Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 78

Denver Broncos 9 – Baltimore Ravens 13

(8:18) 4-B.Colquitt punts 62 yards to BAL 16, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-36-K.Webster.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 78, worth -4.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model