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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 25

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Denver Broncos 9

What Actually Happened

(9:37) 9-J.Tucker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.72 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 35, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model