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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 73

Denver Broncos 9 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(12:37) 4-B.Colquitt punts 55 yards to BAL 18, Center-46-A.Brewer. 89-S.Smith to BAL 40 for 22 yards (48-S.Barrett).

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 73, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 31, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP