Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 65

Denver Broncos 6 – Baltimore Ravens 3

(2:38) 4-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to BAL 15, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 89-S.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.54 EP
69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 65, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model